Recon is out in Danielle now and pressure may be around 942mb. Earl is getting a little bit of shear and some dry air affecting it. So, in this case, the idea of "weaker further west" may apply (It doesn't always). This increases the chance for a Leeward island effect somewhat.

Danielle moving out strengthens the ridge (or gives it more time to back fill), which could keep the system moving more westerly/perhaps slow down a bit. Still odds favor recurve at the moment, but confidence is low.