Problem with Earl was mostly decoupling and multiple mid level centers along with some SAL. Earl had its mid level center push WNW yesterday while the LLC moved pretty much due W. Still with ridging to its north.. the MLC late last night into today has moved little and is weakening around 16.4N and 44.2W While another MLC is out just ahead of the LLC near 16.4N and 45.6W. The estimated LLC is closer to 15.8N and 45.3W.

Now Earl is around 1002mbs and with warmer SSTS coming going over tonight and light shear.. I expect Earl to consolidate with the MLC just out infront of the LLC. When this happens later this evening and into tonight.. I expect a pressure drop into the mid 990s. It's a guess of course cause we don't have the knowledge and technology to accurately predict such events for certain. But 994-997mb by 11am on Sat would be my guess unless the MLC stays out infront of the LLC.

Path is straight forward to just north of the Leeward islands by Monday-Monday night. I would expect TS watches to go up on Saturday. After that.. its for the forecast lounge and a guess cause after 72hrs,things can change faster.