forming over the Northern Bahamas. I'm watching Fiona racing up Earl's "backside". Very interesting scenario here.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

If the cutoff low sinks further South, could it help turn Earl away for the CONUS and then turn it more back towards the West and NC?

Or is the ULL not really a factor in how Earl tracks, and everything is dependant on the high pressure ridge and the trough over the continent?

Right now it appears Earl is hanging on to his 135 cat 4 winds, but he doesn't look nearly as impressive as he did yesterday when cat 5 strength was a real possibility. The NHC is forecasting a little strengtheing later but not today depending on the current ERC and its end result.

Early has been an interesting storm to follow.