For the time being, lets also look @ Fiona. She has been hit by 2 things 1 Dry Air..but really more importantly is her speed @ 23-25mph during the past 2-3 days. Same thing started with Earl... once he slowed down to 18mph (not much of a slowdown) he quickly became a hurricane.
Now with that said, I don't expect Fiona to become a hurricane in the next 24-36hrs...but Fiona over the next 12-36hrs will determine so much with her.
Lets look at things. Models jump the gun too much and don't have a strong enough ridging so far this year over the tropical atlantic.. This is why Earl kept going more W and didn't go north of 20N until 66.5W (about). Fiona is suppose to turn more NW today and NNW near 60W by Weds morning. The WV imagery shows that Earl is actually bringing up the heights to his east on the ridge. Also the ridge moves quickly W in the next 48-60hrs and lies pretty much along 22N from 70W out to Bermuda. This causes Earl to move N and then NE around it but where will Fiona be? Models say somewhere around 25N and 65W in 60hrs. I really can't grasp that cause of Fiona slowing down some as she approaches 60W and I feel 16.8N and moving more WNW later this evening and tonight...then a more NW path towards U.S. British Islands and even maybe Puerto Rico Weds afternoon and night. This is cause the models have been too weak this year with the ridging and wanting to pull systems around the ridge too quickly.
It be interesting also on if she strengthens some tonight. Shear will pick up on Weds in the wake of Earl, but I don't think the shear maps are telling the story correctly also in the near term.
So thing is.. next 12-36hrs will be key. When will Fiona turn NW or even NNW (if the models do have it correctly) or will Fiona move more WNW tonight and not turn NW until sometime on Weds or Weds night? Also what will the shear be from Earl? The short term in path,speed, shear zone, and strength will be important over this time frame.