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We had what appeared to be a rather fast moving trough or dry front move through Mississippi this afternoon. I'm not real sure what that might do. ( I think I know, and it's not very good for folks on the Eastern Seaboard.) I don't recall seeing mention of any fronts passing through here until Thursday or Friday. Will the shortwave push or pull Earl? 932mb gives a maximum possible windspeed of 143 mph. The following Model Discussion is a bit old. But worth reading, I think. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 221 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC ...HURRICANE EARL... THE 09Z/SREF MEAN...ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM...12Z/GFS...AND THE 12Z/CMC HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH TRACK OF EARL DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THE 12Z/UKMET INDICATES AN EASTWARD TREND COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN...WHILE THE 12Z/ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT TRACK. THE SREF AND NAM INDICATE A SLOWER TREND...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE 12Z/GFS TRACK IS NOTABLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. |