danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 02 2010 12:55 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today

We had what appeared to be a rather fast moving trough or dry front move through Mississippi this afternoon. I'm not real sure what that might do. ( I think I know, and it's not very good for folks on the Eastern Seaboard.)
I don't recall seeing mention of any fronts passing through here until Thursday or Friday.

Will the shortwave push or pull Earl?

932mb gives a maximum possible windspeed of 143 mph.

The following Model Discussion is a bit old. But worth reading, I think.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
221 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC

...HURRICANE EARL...

THE 09Z/SREF MEAN...ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM...12Z/GFS...AND THE
12Z/CMC HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH TRACK OF EARL DURING DAYS 2 AND 3.
THE 12Z/UKMET INDICATES AN EASTWARD TREND COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN...WHILE THE 12Z/ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT TRACK. THE SREF
AND NAM INDICATE A SLOWER TREND...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE 12Z/GFS TRACK IS NOTABLY WEST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.



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