My guess is, looking at the WV, the point for Earl to turn NE is about the Delmarva. The trough is not making much push on its south, but is continuing to progress on the north. However the motion on Earl now is certainly more consistent with NNW. The ridge seems to be digging in behind Earl's wake from the NE which should push Earl more northward until the point where he feels the trough. The whole visual picture confirms the best case scenario under the circumstances, for the OBX, that Earl will remain offshore. But a turn to the NE that far north does not bode well for the NE coastliine which is where I think the real danger for a land fall exists.