TD10 is currently in a favorable thermo-atmospheric environment for further strengthening, and is forecast to become our next named storm. However, working against Ten is its very close proximity to land. Additionally, the air to its north and northwest is exceptionally dry, and this could potentially also work against the cyclone, especially should it track to the right (north) of current guidance.

Nonetheless, the greatest threat with Ten looks to be the risk of life-threatening flooding, upon approach, and once inland. In addition to forming in a region of high moisture content, the cyclone is also benefiting from tapping even more tropical moisture out of the eastern Pacific. Also, the stationary front separating the very dry continental airmass to the north from the high moisture content over the Gulf looks to give ground as Ten approaches, and as such, there may actually be relatively little dry air entrainment, when all is said and done.

While currently considered mainly a flood threat for old Mexico, with up to twenty plus inches of rainfall possible in some locations there, just a slight deviation of track to the north could bring tropical storm force conditions and very copious tropical rains to several parts of Texas early to mid week, and perhaps even longer, should the system, or even just its remnants, stall.