8:30AM EDT Monday, 27 September 2010

There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, as the last advisories were issued on Matthew and Lisa yesterday.

The area in the West Caribbean (in particular an area forming southeast of Cancun) will need to be monitored by those in the western Caribbean and Florida, but looks mostly like a very heavy rain maker. It really depends on how organized it gets before moving out and interacting with the cold front approaching it'll likely become a sheared system with most of the energy spread eastward. This is still not an invest and in a very complex pattern it is still too soon to say much beyond that.

The area has not yet been designated as an official "Invest" area, so the usual model plot suites are not currently available. Global models (like GFS, Euro) will provide some. It's likely that it will become an area later today.

West Caribbean IR/Rainbow Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording

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3:15PM EDT Sunday, 26 September 2010

An area of disturbed weather in the western caribbean, left from the wake of Matthew has a chance to form this week, and may be the system that some models were depicting a few days ago as possibly affecting Florida late this week.

There currently is a 10% chance for development within the next few days. IT currently is not being tracked as an invest area, but may tomorrow. This is an area that could give us quite a bit of rain in Florida, and may be one of several for October.

More to come on these systems later. See The forecast lounge for informal discussion of the system.

The last advisory on Matthew was issued at 11 AM This morning. Lisa is nearing it's end as well.

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12:10PM EDT Saturday, 25 September 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew is briefly over water again before another landfall in Belize, the center moved a bit further north than expected overnight. The official forecast still takes it inland to mostly rain itself out and slow down, but the storm still is moving at a fairly brisk pace.

11:00AM EDT Friday, 24 September 2010
The new forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Matthew inland quickly, never getting to Hurricane Strength and then falling apart over the Yucatan, and raining itself out. Based on the fast Westward motion this morning, this is quickly becoming the most likely scenario.

7:40AM EDT Friday, 24 September 2010 :?: :?:

Anyone who says they know where Matthew is going long term is probably lying. This system is entering into a very complex pattern, and lack of steering currents makes it worse. The most probable outcome now is that it clips the Nicaragua/Honduran coastlines as a hurricane, then makes landfall as a hurricane and then basically stops as the steering currents basically disappear, and dumps a tremendous amount of probably flooding rains along Belize and the Yucatan.

After this, it just gets nearly impossible to make sense of and is completely lounge territory. But I'll attempt to, the systtem stays around the Yucatan, may slip into the Bay of Campeche or back into the Western Caribbean, but will basically meander around until something kicks it out, or rains itself out over land. Another possible system in the Caribbean develops which keeps it mixed up even more, and may be actually Matthew, and then turns it more northeastward toward southwest Florida.

The models have been changing wildly between each run for the past few days, so confidence for past 3 days or so is extremely low. The best guess is the NHC's current forecast track. The NHC's track is a split between the model camps (One being more west, the other moving it more northeast toward western Cuba/Florida)

Only slightly more likely is the rain out over the Yucatan as moving in and out, or bouncing off Belize and northeast.

Those in Belize and the Yucatan will want to watch this system very Close, and possibly find themselves in a long period of incredible rainfall. Those in the hurricane Warning Area will want to prepare for a hurricane. Those elsewhere in the Eastern Gulf will just want to keep watch on it to see where Matthew goes (or doesn't go) over the week.

4:40PM EDT 23 September 2010
TD#15 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew.

2PM EDT 23 September 2010
Tropical Depression Fifteen forms in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Warnings up for Nicaragua and Honduras.

The current forecast track takes it over coastal Honduras and forms into a hurricane off of Belize. It then landfalls in Belize and begins to curve more northeast.

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7AM EDT 23 September 2010

Low confidence is probably something you will hear a lot with the wave in the Caribbean. It's usually not a good idea to hype or conjecture too much about storms that have not developed, and this one in particular.

The wave (95L) is slowly organizing and still looks most likely to form Friday or Saturday. Nicaragua and Honduras need to watch because they will be the ones likely to see the first effects from the storm.

Where the confusion lies is partly due to an upper level low that is cut off, which complicates the track. Some of the global models turn it north and northeast (toward Florida), but differ on how far west (or inland) it gets into Central America. There is a good chance that it will be over land first, and then meander a bit before turning generally north. To say it will affect Florida is impossible right now other than to say it's worth watching for the eastern Gulf, but it does not deserve any hype at the moment.

Depending exactly on the conditions ahead, and if it goes over land or not will determine what type of system, and at what strength it is.

Really not much has changed since yesterday, those in Honduras and Nicaragua need to watch the system closely, and Central America and the Yucatan will likely want to watch it as well. Those in the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico will want to check back in a few days to see what track becomes more likely.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Lisa is meandering in the Eastern Atlantic and probably will be around for quite a while, odds keep it out to sea the entire time.

The last advisory on Igor was issued Yesterday and is no longer being tracked. Igor was fairly strong in Newfoundland.

The wave in the eastern Caribbean (95L) continues to be the one to watch into next week. Odds favor the system getting close or moving into Nicaragua/Honduras (may or may not be a full storm by then) and possibly curving northward potentially putting Central and Eastern Gulf coasts at risk.

Likelihood of it forming into a hurricane is fairly high, it's questionable if it can do that before Honduras/Nicaragua though, or after. Depends on the next few days. If it forms, the most likely time it would form is Friday or Saturday. If things persist more, it could be sooner than that.

The huge uncertainty right now is if and when a turn to the north happens before it gets into the heart of Central America or the Yucatan. If it does not, the risk to the Gulf increase, if it does, then it will mean tremendous amounts of rainfall for Central America.

Those in Honduras and Nicaragua will want to keep a close watch on the system, and those in the Yucatan, and Central Eastern Gulf will want to watch for trends to see what eventually occurs with this.

As the wave has not yet developed into a tropical system, things can change wildly, and models (Especially intensity models) are not all that reliable until it does. Even when it does you have to see the trends to find any model biases that may exist.

Long range discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge.