Have to say looking over the models this afternoon with this mess in the western Caribbean, some consistency starting to develop especially with the global models. And seeing some convection albeit very disorganized its more believable that we should have a broad low pressure 24-48 hours gradually getting better organized as it moves north. How much strength it can gain is hard to tell given the trough digging into the southeast with increasing shear. I think its becoming a little more clear given the agreement with models that Cuba and Floirda needs to watch it closely. How far the trough/front digs into the state, how much shear will effect it will determine its future path and strength. Models range from big bend to the southeast floirda coast. Until we have a center and point to track its hard to do anything but speculate.