5PM EDT Wednesday, 29 Sept 2010 - Update
TS Nicole is no more - I'm not convinced that it ever was

It goes down in the books as a six-hour storm. Center elongated and could no longer be tracked. No further Advisories and all Watches/Warnings have been cancelled. Heavy showers still hitting southeast Florida and the Bahamas. An extratropical gale has formed off the Florida coast and will slam into the Carolinas tonight and Thursday.

Watching two areas in the central Atlantic that have a low probability for any development.
ED

10:53AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole.

All Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida have been discontinued as Nicole is forecast to remain East of the State. Rain still will occur along the peninsula.

Outside of this, it is possible for more from the western Caribbean, and there are two areas in the Central Atlantic that have low chances of forming.

Mark Sudduth from Hurricane Track.com is doing live video from the rainfall caused by "Nicole" in North Carolina track him here

West Caribbean IR/Rainbow Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording

Cuban Radar

Flhurricane Long Term Radar Recording of Florida Approach of TD#16

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8:50AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update

The new "best track" for Tropical Depression 16 puts it at 21.9N 80.9W, or offshore just south of Playa Giron, Cuba. (which is due south of Marathon Key).

What this likely means for Florida is just more time for the stream of moisture to pull up from the Caribbean, and more rainfall over a longer period of time.

6:00AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings were extended northward to Sebastian Inlet overnight. The broad area of monsoonal-like convection stretching from Jamaica and points west northward through Florida will continue today, bringing lots of rain to South and East Central Florida. The Depression is in the midst of all this on the north side of Cuba now, and is expected to landfall in south Florida tonight.

Most of the rain associated directly with the storm will be seen in South Florida and East Central Florida (aka, Brevard, Indian River) counties. Rain to the west will exist too, but not as dense or frequent as there. South Florida is already getting the rain, and for Central Florida, most of the rain will show up this afternoon. Rain will extend fairly far north with a combination of the stalled out front and the Caribbean monsoonal like flow.

Once past Florida it will start to lose any tropical characteristics and then increase rain and wind along the Carolinas as a non-tropical system, and probably bring lots of rain there and points northeast.

The depression itself is more of a hybrid storm than anything, and is hard to locate on satellite photography. The official statements are based on radar and Recon findings.

There remains a large mass of activity within the Caribbean that will continue to draw up rain after this, and may potentially form another tropical or hybrid system later. Maybe as soon as this weekend.

8:45PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Today's very heavy rainfall in Central Florida was from a stalled out front enhanced by the large broad area of tropical moisture associated with TD#16. In fact, Central Florida received much more rain (so far) than South Florida did today.

The center is still a bit difficult to track as TD#16 is not purely tropical. Pressures are very low in the area however, and it is expected to move nearer to South and Central Florida tomorrow night. Until it gets a persistent center it will probably remain a depression.

2:55PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
The best track has been altered to read Tropical Depression again, so it may not quite be nicole at 5.

I would not try to base movement on center positions, though, as the center was poorly defined. The overall convection is the best thing to monitor right now. And it may have slower forward motion than indicated.

It may mean some changes in watches/warnings, but still the system is expected to remain at Tropical Storm strength and has to cross over the isle of Youth and Cuba before hand. Those in east Central Florida will want to watch for that.

10:55AM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings: Jupiter Inlet South to East Cape Sable, including Keys. Tropical Storm Watch, Chokoloskee south and Sebastian South.

Warnings up for Cuba and Grand Cayman, as well as watches for the western Bahamas.

Most of the energy of the system should stay to the east of Florida, so most of the Florida impact will be in the warning area. A lot depends on how it interacts with Cuba, and how organized it gets before south Florida. Odds favor the system not amounting to much in Florida currently (especially if it moves further east), but it could change. Please heed any local advisories/warnings.

Recon should be arriving near the system around 1PM - 1:30PM this afternoon.

Original Update
The wave in the western Caribbean has remained mostly disorganized overnight, but still is creeping toward organization. It is likely to become a tropical depression or storm today. It appears the complex of storms further eastward than pointed out yesterday (Closer to southwest of the halfway point between the caymans and the Isle of Youth) at this time.

It has a short window to strengthen before approaching Cuba, which land interactions will likely keep it from rapidly strengthening. It appears that perhaps only extreme southeastern Florida will see much impact from the storm as most of the activity will be toward the east. Other parts of Florida likely will see increased rainfall especially tomorrow, but odds are it won't be too bad. It will important to watch for changes in the near term, however, as a lot depends on where the center of the tropical cyclone forms.

The down side to barely missing or clipping extreme southeastern Florida is it increases the risk to the Carolinas and the Northeast that it could be a stronger storm then. Those in Wilmington, NC, may get the really heavy rainfall. The good side is that the storm does not appear to stop moving, so a prolonged downpour is unlikely.

There is still quite a few questions with the system, but it appears, at least for Florida, it won't be much more than rainfall, more the further southeast you go. How much overall depends on how quickly the storm moves and how far east (and possibly away from Florida) it gets. Odds are it will be a non-event in most of Florida. However it could change, and those in Florida will want to continue to watch the system, and heed any official advisories. Rain chances will be very high over the next few days regardless.

Beyond that, the Caribbean likely will continue to bubble up activity for another two weeks or so, none of which seems likely to become major, but will still have to be watched.