TD16 is indeed more subtropical rather than tropical - and the structure was also subtropical this morning as well. The TD is still quite weak with poor structure - as are most subtropical systems. The TD should cross over western Cuba just to the south of Havana and the terrain in that area is rather flat with mountains further to the west. Since the system is already weak, crossing Cuba is not going to disrupt it too much (if at all). Havana pressure at 5PM and 6PM EDT was down to 1000MB.

Havana, Cuba Weather

With reference to some earlier comments, the DSHP model does consider land interaction, i.e., inland decay. Note the difference between the SHIP and the DSHP in the following:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1800 100929 0600 100929 1800 100930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 82.9W 22.5N 82.7W 24.3N 81.6W 26.9N 79.7W
BAMD 21.2N 82.9W 23.6N 82.4W 27.0N 81.7W 31.1N 80.9W
BAMM 21.2N 82.9W 22.8N 82.3W 25.3N 81.1W 28.8N 79.2W
LBAR 21.2N 82.9W 23.5N 82.2W 27.2N 81.5W 32.0N 80.3W
SHIP 35KTS...........41KTS..............50KTS..............57KTS
DSHP 35KTS...........33KTS..............44KTS..............44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800 101003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 77.6W 35.6N 73.9W 40.3N 68.0W 45.6N 57.1W
BAMD 35.5N 79.6W 45.6N 70.8W 55.2N 54.7W 57.2N 30.6W
BAMM 33.5N 77.0W 42.9N 68.8W 51.5N 52.2W 52.7N 27.4W
LBAR 37.8N 77.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS..............54KTS..........31KTS..........0KTS
DSHP 49KTS..............32KTS..........0KTS

ED