berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 29 2010 02:27 AM
TD16 - Subtropical?

I'm going to lay this to rest now; TD16 is not a tropical depression though officially it is. Currently there is a 997 millibar surface low near 22.5N 81.7W based on surface and buoy observations coming onshore in the area. There is some convection near the center however stronger convective complex is active near and over Jamaica and points east and southeast where very light shear aloft resides. Hostile winds aloft reside very close to the surface center with 20 knots over the system increasing west and north away from the center. the broader surface circulation at 29/00Z.

If not a tropical depression, what is it? At best it is a subtropical depression and will transition to a extra-tropical low within the next 24 to 36 hours as a shortwave rounds the base of the cutoff upper low aloft over the SE USA. This "non-tropical" low will deepen into an early Nor'Easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England area and move rapidly up the coast in the next few days and bring strong winds and heavy precip up and along the Eastern Seaboard.

There is the possibility of another tropical or subtropical system forming in the Caribbean later into the week; early next week as surface pressures are low over a broad area.



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