cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 11 2010 05:01 PM
Re: Western Caribbean

Invest 98L has more than easily passed the sniff-test imho, and has already more than qualified for an official upgrade to TD status. Wind reports in the area do not yet seem to justify a direct upgrade to a named tropical storm, but then, recon is only now en route to the cyclone and available reports are somewhat sparse in the region.

The center of the cyclone looks like it could already be inland over northeastern Honduras, and moving generally west-northwest, so a reemergence over the water is very possible, assuming it is not at this time over water.

In summation, it appears watches and warnings will almost certainly be issued for locations from Honduras to the Yucatan peninsula, and possibly already including western Cuba, in short order, as the cyclone continues to pass either just inland or just offshore central America, with the potential to also drift northwesterly to northerly a bit, should it not continue rolling further west-northwestward into central America to rain itself out, or otherwise become less organized in that region.

Very heavy rain is likely already occurring.



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