Satellite presentation has been pretty impressive all night with -80 tops. Depending on which satellite enhancement one looks at, one could nearly argue the outline of a warm spot and potential developing eye. Other observation is that it would appear that Paula is already moving on a more NNW motion. Any guesses whether we have a vortex message and center fix prior to the 2:00am update? By presentation alone, am going to guess that over the next couple of hours, the plane finds pressures as low as 988mb.

Now that the 0Z GFS is out, am curious as to how Paula was initialized. It would seem to me that it was not quite initialized as a 994mb low, and thus might no be entirely representative of how a deeper system might be impacted by current and near term steering. On another note, it is interesting how the new 0Z NOGAPS model would appear to carry Paula a little farther to the north ( near the lower Keys ) at the point where nearly all steering breaks down.