MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Oct 12 2010 03:27 PM
Re: Paula RECON

Quote:

For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?




There's some discussion of this in the forecast lounge, but in general it's still not likely to affect S. Florida much, or if it did reach it would be on the weak side due to shear and fast moving, so likely not too much of a flood threat.

You can see the shear in the Gulf on the system now with the Water vapor loop. This would force it to the east quickly and tear up the system.

The system is in the cone, and some of the GFS suite and NOGAPS models have it approaching S. Florida, but the majority of everything else keeps it far to the south. It's a small system and uncertainty is high, that fact alone makes it worth watching closely.

But in general, for south Florida, since it is in the "cone" it is worth watching, but right now it still isn't very likely to do much.



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