Hard to believe Paula has survived the night with its core circulation still quite intact. Morning satellite today does not yet offer evidence of shear having taken its toll - yet. Such however should start occuring really quite soon. Best chance for Paula to maintain a fair amount of its current structure ( and strength ) would be for it to soon make that move to the northeast. If the storm can maintain its deep convection and the faster its forward motion is, then the longer Paula will perhaps be able to hang on to any semblance of a minimal hurricane or tropical storm. This mornings models have all shifted northward and will be interesting to see where Paula is at 1800Z today, as compared to the next forecast point of 21.5N and 85.8W ( at approx. 1:00pm this afternoon ). Finally, it is interesting to note that looking at the current water vapor loop of Florida and the Caribbean, the mid level ridging over East/Central Caribbean appears to be expanding westward ( and possibly slightly northward ), basically filling in Paola's wake.