cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys

Quote:

Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.





This observation is both correct and incorrect, depending on perspective.

Much of the bad weather associated with Paula is indeed still heading NE, rather than ENE. This is due to the very strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing deep convection away from the tropical cyclone, and up to the northeast. In addition, a remnant boundary cuts across south of Florida, serving to enhance lift, and giving even more of an appearance that "Paula" is northeast of where she has been forecast to be at this time.

Despite all this this, the center of Paula's actual low level circulation has been starting to turn ENE, as advertised. In fact, there are even a few hints that the center of Paula may already be starting to feel the first of possibly many pushes to the east, which may ultimately end up being pushes to the ESE, SE and even S.

You can make out Paula's low level center much better using Visible satellite images. Water vapor images are actually often a poor choice when attempting to determine where a surface cyclone's center is.

This link can take you to a very good Visible loop of Paula (time-sensitive).



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