danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 20 2010 07:57 AM
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA SW OF OF GRAND
CAYMAN. AT 20/0900 UTC A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LOW FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W
INCLUDING THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THUS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Read "partially exposed 1008mb Low"

Excerpt from Trop. Weather Outlook:
...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/