Friday November 5, 2010 7AM EDT Update
Tomas is approaching Haiti with the "dirty" side of the storm, and overnight it restrengthened into a hurricane. The worst from the system will be felt in Haiti all day today. Once the system moves past Haiti in about 24 hours, it will run into the trough which will likely shear it apart rather quickly.

But in the meantime, that means Haiti, in no condition to do so, will have to deal with a strengthening hurricane raking along the western shore. It likely won't begin weakening soon enough to prevent hurricane conditions around the Turks and Caicos either, so those in that area should also prepare for as high as category 3 conditions. The closest approach for the Turks and Caicos is pre-dawn tomorrow.

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Thursday November 4, 2010 7AM EDT Update
Tropical Storm Tomas is approaching the central Caribbean and may near Jamaica, enough so that a Tropical Storm warning remains up. Because a hurricane is once again forecast later, Hurricane Warnings are up for Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands along the Eastern Bahamas. After which Tomas should stay out to sea.

The area likely to be hardest hit by Tomas is in Western Haiti, where the combination of rain and wind will likely cause numerous mudslides.

Conditions in eastern Jamaica may deteriorate to Tropical Storm conditions late this afternoon into the evening. Possibly Hurricane conditions likely will be in Haiti very late tonight into tomorrow morning, and in the Turks and Caicos midday Friday through the afternoon.

Wednesday November 3, 2010 6PM EDT Update
Tomas is back to Tropical Storm strength, and is now forecast to stay that way as it moves generally north northwest. Tropical storm watches are up for Jamaica, the far Eastern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning is up for Haiti. A Hurricane watch is also up for Haiti.

Wednesday November 3, 2010 Noon EDT Update
Tomas, expected to possibly become a major hurricane a few days ago, instead has now become a depression in the Central Caribbean. However, the official forecast still takes it back to tropical storm strength before a landfall on Haiti on Friday.

Weakening looks to be caused by mid and upper level shear, even with other factors being positive.

Since Jamaica is in the cone, they have issued a hurricane watch, but it appears the system will stay east of the island, but there is a fairly good chance it may get close enough to see some tropical storm conditions along eastern sections of the island.

One past Haiti it is expected to curve further north and east away from the Bahamas and stay out to sea.

Monday November 1, 2010 1:00PM EDT Update
Earlier today southwesterly windshear had reduced Tomas to a low level swirl that was displaced from its convection by over 100 miles. In the last few hours the convection has developed into the center from the northeast and this should maintain tropical storm status for Tomas and suggests that the windshear has started to relax.

One of the dangers of a 12-hour averaging for motion is that a more imminent threat can arise rather quickly. While the concern has centered on Haiti in the long range, Tomas has had a more recent short-term motion to the southwest toward Aruba. If the convective trend and the short-term motion trend continue, and right now both of those prospects represent a big 'IF', the folks in Aruba could become unexpected targets of tropical storm conditions. The motion to the southwest could be just a short term anomaly and with convection again developing at the center the track could readjust to the west.
ED

Curacao Radar Loop

Monday November 1, 2010 7:00AM EDT Update
Tomas is undergoing rather strong vertical shear which has left the system decoupled, and has greatly weakened the system, which is good news somewhat since it makes it unlikely to reach a major hurricane, but it still is forecast to become a hurricane again before landfall in Haiti, unfortunately.

Any tropical system of any strength is dangerous for Haiti in the condition that the nation is in now. Mostly from rain and mudslides, wind is just another issue on top of that.

Other areas in the cone need to continue to watch Tomas, including Jamaica.

Sunday October 31, 2010 9:0AM EDT Update

Tomas has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane this morning, and is moving generally toward the west northwest. There is quite a bit of uncertainty a few days out, but the news is not good for Haiti, who has the highest chance of seeing a possible direct landfall from a major hurricane Thursday-Friday being the most likely time frame..

The uncertainty of the models also suggest Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico will have to continue to monitor the storm for changes.

Any type of land falling storm has the potential to be disastrous for Haiti, a major would re-devastate areas affected by the earthquake from January.

French Antilles Radar Recording of Tomas Approach (Flhurricane)

Saturday October 30, 2010 11:45PM EDT Update
After hitting St. Vincent and St. Lucia with winds of 90mph, Hurricane Tomas is moving slowly west northwest into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Additional slow intensification is possible on Sunday and Monday as Tomas continues the slow movement to the west northwest on Sunday and more westerly on Monday. Portions of the Leeward Islands are still experiencing tropical storm force winds but these winds should eventually abate as Tomas continues to move further west.

Tropical Storm Shary has started to interact with a strong cold front in the north central Atlantic. With extratropical transition underway, NHC issued its last advisory on Shary at 30/21Z.
ED

Saturday October 30, 2010 1:30AM EDT Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for a growing portion of the Windward Islands, including, but not limited to, Barbados and the Grenadines, with the center of Tomas forecast to pass near Barbados in just a few hours.

Tomas has been undergoing some RI, or Rapid Intensification, tonight, and maximum sustained winds were most recently estimated to be up to 65MPH. Further intensification overnight looks very possible, and obviously Tomas could even become a formidable hurricane at just about any time now.

In addition to high wind, Tomas is an especially large, moisture-laden tropical cyclone, and so flooding is also already a concern.

2010 continues setting new records with the formation of Tomas on Friday:

On Friday, Tomas set the new record, in our admittedly limited data base, for tropical storm formation so far south and east this late in a season.

One actually has to go all the way back to 1896 to find a lone challenger, when "Hurricane Six" was estimated to have first become a Tropical Storm on October 26, also south of 12N and east of 60W, but remain so only up to about nine hours earlier than Tomas, up to the very early morning of October 29 of that year, after which "Six," by now also a strong Category 1 Hurricane, had already started recurving out to sea, and breached 12N as of about 06Z October 29, 1896. (LINK)

With the formation of Tomas, 2010 now ties the hyperactive years, 1995 & 1887, for 3rd place for most named storms in the Atlantic basin, bested only by 1933, at 21 names, and of course 2005, with 28.

- Ciel

Original Entry
The nineteenth named storm of the 2010 season has formed east of the Caribbean. It has a good overall pattern and outflow which could set it up for possible rapid intensification when or if it gets vertically aligned. Those in the path will want to watch in closely.

In fact, Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenada, Trinidad, and Tobago.

A tropical storm watch is also up for Dominica.

The system is forecast to become a hurricane, and then a major hurricane in the Central Caribbean. Jamaica, Haiti, and the Eastern side of Cuba will want to watch closely. When it arrives in the Central Caribbean, steering currents relax and it should slow down forward movement.

At that time it gets a bit hairy and depends on if it gets picked up by the next progressive mid-latitude system, or not. Currently, it seems slightly more likely for it to eventually turn north and then get kicked east and out, which unfortunately puts several land masses at risk in the Caribbean. Another possibility is that it slips west, and another ridge forms, bringing yet more risk to the Caymans, and Central America (again). Both are equally possible at present. It seems highly unlikely that the system gets close enough to directly affect the US mainland or get in the Gulf.

More to come later...