A bit of the Forecast Side of the Discussion, but noteworthy.

AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW
CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE
TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.