Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Nov 04 2010 05:31 PM
Tomas Close to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Tomas has had a swirl possibly at mid-level or low-level rotating counterclockwise around a broader area of low pressure - probably centered closer to 17N 76.5W at 04/21Z - and just about stationary for the last few hours. Winds currently listed at 50mph which seems quite generous for a system that is not vertically stacked and has most of its convection displaced to the east by windshear.

Even though the latest NHC forecast track keeps the cyclone over water though the Paso de los Vientos between eastern Cuba and western Haiti, unless the system structure improves significantly and soon, it would seem difficult for Tomas to regain hurricane intensity as the windshear increases. Looks more like a flooding rain event for Hispaniola with tropical storm force winds.
ED

Weather at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba



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