MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 10:27 AM |
Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks
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5PM EDT Update
Hurricane Warnings are up now for Sandy Hook, NJ to Sagamore Beach, MA. This includes New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, CT, and RI. Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
Tropical storm warnings are up north of Sagamore Beach to the River (north of Boston).
Tropical Storm watches are now up from north of there to Eastport, ME.
Irene has a very large wind field and will be moving relatively slowly through the forecast track (For storms usually in this area), so there will likely be a prolonged period of high winds and very heavy rainfall.
Original Update
Some shear has appeared to the north of Irene (Actually stronger than forecast yesterday) that is impacting Hurricane Irene, and causing it to weaken somewhat. It has a ragged appearance on Satellite this morning, but it is forecast to return to major hurricane status later today and already has hints that this is underway.
The hurricane watch areas from yesterday are now hurricane warnings, and hurricane watches are now up north of Sandy Hook, NJ to the mouth of the Merrimack River (Just north of Boston), including Long Island, Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod. This means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
The forecast track has adjusted slightly to account for wobbles overnight, but is still very similar to what it was before. Be aware, the pressure is still low in Irene, and the area of wind that is hurricane force is large in comparison to smaller hurricanes, even if the winds around the core are not is intense. Also a lot of storm surge has been built up by the large wind field.
The wind field of Irene is larger on the eastern (or right of the direction of travel) than the west, but still has a good reach to the west, anywhere that feels the hurricane force winds is likely to lose power across a good deal of area. The good news this morning is that the track shift is slightly to the east, so less inland areas may see impacts, but the outer Banks, and Long Island still are within the eastern area of the storm, as well as Boston. Adjustments back west or east are equally as likely later. Please realize the forecast is not a line, it is a large area of hurricane force winds extend out from the center ~55 miles on the western side, with tropical storm force winds close to 200 miles to the west as well. Irene is currently about the same size or maybe a little larger than Hurricane Ike in 2008, it is likely to be larger than Ike before it reaches the Carolinas.
Please listen to local media and officials, and do not let the wind speed drop fool you, the area of winds is extremely large for a hurricane.
What's happening weather wise or people wise regarding Irene in your area? Let us know here.
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Event Links
Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.
Landfall Area Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
Webcams: (south to north)
Live Myrtle Beach Cam
Myrtle Beach Earthcam
Bar Harbor Myrtle Beach Live Cam
Crown Reef Myrtle Beach Live Cam
North Myrtle Beach Controllable Cam (Flhurricane Recording of this camera
Holden Beach, NC Cam (flhurricane recording)
Oriental, NC Harbor Cam -- flhurricane recording
HurricaneTrack.com Tower Cam 1 (Hatteras) -- Flhurricane recording
Dare County Em Management
Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Novac/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina
Chasercam live
Severe Weather Live Feed
{{CHC}}
Irene Storm Surge Probabilities
Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
RGB satellite recording of Irene.
Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene
Level 3 Radar recording of Irene's NC approach (HCW)
Map plot of Irene overlaid on Hurricane Floyd (1999) as well as other notable New England storms
{{StormCarib}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{NERadar}}
{{StormLinks|Irene|09|9|2011|2|Irene}}
{{StormLinks|TD10|10|10|2011|1|TD#10}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|11|2011|0|91L}}
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 12:28 PM |
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Irene Surge Forecasts
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Mike has posted a link to the NHC Surge Forecasts above. I'll repost the link by itself here and comment on the Surge Forecasts.
Irene's Current NHC Storm Surge Probabilities
The Probabilities change every 3 to 6 hours. Please check them frequently
Please cycle through the different Surge Height Probabilities when using the NHC Product above.
Anyone on or near the Atlantic Coast from Florida to Maine should heed all Local and NHC Watches and Warnings.
Including Voluntary and MANDATORY EVACUATION notices.
At the present time using Advisory 24 there are several highly hazardous areas. They are as follows, from South to North.
Cape Fear and Onslow Bay,SC
Pamlico Sound, NC
Albemarle Sound,NC
Virginia Beach,VA
Cape Henry,VA
Norfolk,VA
Portsmouth,VA
Newport News,VA
Hampton,VA
Sandy Hook Bay,NJ
Raritan Bay, NJ
Lower Bay,NY
Any location in the vicinity of the above Cities and Bays. Basically any area on the Atlantic Coast from South Carolina northward that faces east or north. These areas allow the wind to pile up seas and surge and will experience Higher Water than other areas.
Especially Bays and Sounds. Including rivers and tributaries to the bays and Sounds.
Surge can, and will move upstream! Katrina's surge moved upstream nearly 18 miles.
Irene is currently forecast to move parallel to the Coast from North Carolina to Maine. This will enable the Sea Level Heights to reach depths as great as 8 feet in some areas.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 12:39 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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I believe there is also a new moon this weekend, what type of depth will that add on @ High Tides?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 01:02 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Quote:
I believe there is also a new moon this weekend, what type of depth will that add on @ High Tides?
Thanks, I meant to check on that. And you are correct the new Moon is this weekend.
New Moon and Full Moon have a great effect on the tide level. Producing higher tides.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 01:06 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Springmaid Pier, SC Next predicted high tides are 6.02 ft (1.83 m) at 08/26/2011 17:50 EDT and 5.33 ft (1.62 m) at 08/27/2011 06:21 EDT.
Wrightsville Beach, NC Next predicted high tides are 4.74 ft (1.44 m) at 08/26/2011 17:57 EDT and 4.16 ft (1.27 m) at 08/27/2011 06:20 EDT.
USCG Station Hatteras, NC Next predicted high tides are 0.58 ft (0.18 m) at 08/26/2011 07:03 EDT and 0.55 ft (0.17 m) at 08/26/2011 19:26 EDT.
Duck, NC Next predicted high tides are 3.99 ft (1.22 m) at 08/26/2011 17:54 EDT and 3.49 ft (1.06 m) at 08/27/2011 06:22 EDT.
Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA Next predicted high tides are 2.57 ft (0.78 m) at 08/26/2011 06:19 EDT and 3.12 ft (0.95 m) at 08/26/2011 18:47 EDT.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IRENE.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 01:16 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Hurricane Local Statement
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA edited~danielw
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.
THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST FLOODING
INCLUDE NORFOLK...VIRGINIA BEACH...COROLLA...OCEAN CITY...
WACHAPREAGUE...AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD OF IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
TO OCCUR IN AREAS WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE...RESULTING IN DAMAGING
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING. IF REALIZED...PEOPLE WITHIN THE
THREATENED AREAS WHO FAIL TO HEED OFFICIAL EVACUATION ORDERS WILL
NEEDLESSLY PLACE THEIR LIVES IN DANGER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THOSE STAYING BEHIND IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS HOMES
AND BUSINESSES NEAR THE SHORE...AND ONE STORY DWELLINGS IN FLOOD-
PRONE AREAS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
8 TO 12 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
SECTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND
BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.
Time Sensitive Information;
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?...&glossary=1
| Dougyd |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 02:23 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Storm surge predictions are the most inaccurately predicted aspects of storms.
Some of my observations:
1. Irene is a fast-moving storm moving (initially) parallel to the coast.
2. These types of storms don't have enough time for a large storm surge as there is not a lot of time for the surge to build up.
3. Once the center is past the water is pulled out.
4. The above does not mean there will not be large wave action, though.
5. Storm surges are larger when a storm is slow-moving.
Storms moving directly into land act differently.
1. Surges are larger on the windy side of the eye - pushing water continuously in the same areas.
2. Obviously, slow moving storms allow the surge more time to build up.
3. Bays, inlets and rivers on the windy side can have much higher surges because the water is forced into a narrowing area.
4. Surges on the non-windy side of the storm do not exist.
5. Water is actually sucked out of bays, inlets and rivers.
I think for the above reasons, storm surge was dropped for the hurricane categories. It is also why SOES never worked. It is also why "little" storms frequently have much greater surges the the "big" ones.
Doug
None of this address tides as these are well understood but hard to predict until the storm's arrival is certain.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 03:37 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Danielw,
With the last post I know that was not for us as far north as Manchester, NH but we do have a hurricane watch in effect...
I live on a river... should we prepare to evac when it comes closer to the time period of her hitting i.e. Sat/Sun? Or should we start our hurricane preparation now. We have seen a map released from Weather Channel shows us in extreme... See attached...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 03:59 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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You can see the storm surge potential of Irene from the noaa Irene IKE Scale maps. Ike = Integrated Kinetic Energy (not the hurricane), Right now Irene rates a 5.1 out of 5.99,
It wouldn't be as extreme as the gulf because of the coastline, but I still wouldn't underestimate that much energy.
This is the same even with the current eyewall issues.
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:08 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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How strong do you think the surge will be in NYC? How strong do you think the winds will be in NYC?
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:13 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Yes... how strong do you predict for my area? I mean people here are panicking. I'm wondering when to go stock up... or move more north of here... I know I'm crazy to say this but... I wanted to experience a hurricane and so now I will be... but I don't want to risk my life either... I'm not panicking, but I want to be prepared... the Mets here say it will be just wind and rain...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:19 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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StrmTrckrMiami... The Surge analysis for your area has not been run as of Advisory number 25.
The Surge/ Slosh/ MEOW... whatever you wish to call it is run ahead of the Storm about 36 to 48 hours. Right now it only extends to the Lower Bay,NY on the SW end of Long Island,NY.
This will progress over the day to a point where your area is in the data run and plotted.
Dougyd. You are correct with your observations and analysis. This storm is a bit different than what we are accustomed to in the SE US. The path is parallel to the Coast and Irene has a huge wind field.
Long hours, possibly 24 hours of high winds blowing water into bay, sounds and estuaries will pile up the water. In addition Astronomical High Tides will add to the water pile up.
The water/ surge should slowly recede after Irene's Center passes by.
I have not seen mention of the Jet Streak that is forecast to develop on the NW Quad of Irene in the next few days. This is forecast to aid Irene in maintaining a lower barometric pressure. Which will keep the storm at a steady state longer.
This Jet Streak was analyzed by a NWS office in Pennsylvania yesterday according to the Weather Channel.
Here's a continuously updating Hurricane Local Statement link to your Local NWS Office. Just click on the Office nearest your location.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:29 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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Thanks Daniel.
Better to be prepared than to not. Living in Florida for the time I did has that drilled in my mind.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:48 PM |
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Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
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I hope that I have answered some of your questions. I can't possibly answer all of them because we really don't know what Irene is or is not capable of.
The wind field is huge. Not as big as Katrina, but huge.
Due to the parallel to the Coast track. Some of you along the Atlantic Seaboard will experience winds greater than Tropical Storm force for 18 to 24 hours or more. In addition to Hurricane force winds above 75 mph for a shorter period of time.
The BEST SITE that I have found so far is the NWS FORECAST site.
Put your Zip Code or City, State in the box in the upper left hand corner and GO.
http://www.weather.gov/
NWS Forecasts update every 3 to 6 hours.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 04:56 PM |
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Irene Storm Preps
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Please go and prepare your home, car and family for an extended period without power.
If nothing happens you can drink the water and eat the food.
Watch your Local TV station, NWS Weather Radio, or AM/ FM Station with Emergency Alert Capability for Bulletins, Watches and Warnings.
The Weather Channel has a lot of really good information right now.
In addition to Winds they are expecting large amounts of rainfall in areas adjacent to the Coasts.
Remember... Hide from the wind. And run from the Water.
Craig Fugate the Director of FEMA is recommending preparations for power outages up to a few weeks.
If you don't lose power you are fortunate, and you may be able to help your neighbor that has no power.
Mike and Ed.
Do these post need to go in the Disaster Forum for reference or should they stay here?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 05:00 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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My rule of thumb is that it is fine here until the storm has passed on. At that time, recovery info can go is the Disaster Forum.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 05:14 PM |
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Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina
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In the past few hours Irene has been moving more to the north northwest rather than north - a bit unexpected (but hurricanes are noted for the unexpected). Convection has increased and a visible eye is starting to redevelop. In a few hours, Irene will start to cross the Gulf Stream so some intensification is still possible. If you live in the Carolinas, continue to monitor Irene closely for unanticipated changes.
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 05:16 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Thanks, ED. Will Do.
Voluntary and Mandatory Evacuation Orders are being put into Effect Now and this Afternoon in North Carolina, Virginia and States North of the Hurricane.
Please check your local Television, Radio and Local Television Channels for Evacuation Information.
This is a dangerous and possibly Life Threatening situation in some areas.
Storm Surge of up to 8 feet is Forecast.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 06:06 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Mandatory Zone "A" Evac in NYC (presumed due to flood risk); transit system shuts down at noon tomorrow.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 06:49 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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I just want to say sarcastically, I Love how people here think this is all a game... Floridians know better to be prepared for a Hurricane/TS but here in NH, everyone thinks I am insane going to buy flashlights, and ice bags, and a cooler... and things to be prepared without power for a few days...
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 06:50 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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The wind field may be large, but only TS force winds. The hurricane force winds are in a small cluster to the NE of the center. I noticed yesterday that the front moving off the east coast was pretty sizable and thus might be able to nudge Irene a touch east. However the front is gone now leaving Irene to pulled due north into NC. Luckily the atmosphere in is full of dry air so she is going to be cut off from the moisture flow. The SW side of this storm has never looked good and that trend continues as it appears she has sucked some dry air which causes some weakness. The IR image shows some rebuilding is beginning, just a question of how much can occur before landfall. The next front coming down is a weak dip, not enough to kick Irene away, so I'd say the NHC forecast path is pretty good. I think the areas around DC will see the worst of it, with wind, rain and surge all pushing ashore in that area the most.
In regards to surge, the one thing I've always heard is: hide from wind, run from water. Rising water is no joke, I witnessed surge only once: during David in '79 and its a strange sight to see your boat in the backyard ABOVE your dock and seawall. That was a Cat 2 in West Palm and I lived around 7-10 miles inland on the New River in Ft Laud.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 06:51 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Updated this list:
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Novac/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 06:59 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Quote:
I just want to say sarcastically, I Love how people here think this is all a game... Floridians know better to be prepared for a Hurricane/TS but here in NH, everyone thinks I am insane going to buy flashlights, and ice bags, and a cooler... and things to be prepared without power for a few days...
I think that you will be highly regarded in the coming weeks. Just tell them it's like the longest, warmest Nor'Easter that they have experienced.
Explain the serious of the Storm to them. If they don't listen. At least you tried to help.
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 07:16 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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"Hide from the wind. And run from the Water."
On the other hand, my own closest brush with death from a tropical cyclone happened when a window air conditioner blew out of the window and came sailing across the room almost landing on my chest (during an Okinawa typhoon) The wind can get you too--and it can come from things you forgot to secure properly. While watching the Weather Channel, I noticed things like port-a-potties sitting around on the Virginia beaches. I trust all that stuff will be removed very soon. Otherwise, they could become missiles.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 08:24 PM |
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Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina
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Just a reminder to all when posting to the main page that it is important to stick to facts, and to go light on speculation, rumors, or "gut feelings." There are a number of popular misconceptions with hurricanes (including some outright myths), that get spread around on the Internet during times like now, and the main page is the last place to put them.
With regard to Irene, a few points can not be stressed enough:
* Irene is a very large hurricane with an equally impressive wind field. Generally, the larger the wind field, the greater the potential storm surge (all other variables being equal).
It is inadequate to relate the Saffir-Simpson Scale directly with storm surge, and as such, the NHC has dropped sharing this guide as it has become more a myth, than reality. A very large hurricane can easily produce storm surge one to even three categories above what might typically be found in a mid or small-sized system of equal Category. (Recall Katrina & Ike).
* While winds in most hurricanes in the northern hemisphere do tend to be stronger within the right-front quadrant (northeast quadrant in the case of Irene heading up the east coast), this does not imply that winds will be less dangerous in most if not all other quadrants.
As of this 3:30 PM EDT, verified sustained tropical storm force winds are already occurring just off the coast of South Carolina, well to the northwest of Irene's center. The current wind radius forecast from NHC for 12UTC tomorrow is as follows:
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
Thus the forecast for 08/27/1200Z is calling for sustained hurricane-fore winds out between 50 and 80 nautical miles in all directions from Irene's center, with high-end tropical storm force winds extending out between 75 and 125 from the center.
* Most tropical cyclone related deaths in the US are now caused by inland flooding.
Even though Irene should be moving forward at an increasing clip, her large size will be accompanied by many hours of rain, some of it very heavy. This persistent rain over a very large area will be falling over parts of the country that have already experienced very excessive rainfall this month. For an example of what can result from this kind of setup, a look at the 1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season is reasonable: ( Wikipedia 1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season ). Inland river flooding became locally catastrophic from back-to-back hurricanes Connie & Diane, a real 1-2 punch.
* Saturated ground gives way easier to effects from strong winds and persistent, heavy rain.
As very large and wet Irene is forecast to spend a good deal of time over ground that has already received copious rainfall, less wind than usual will be all that's required to down trees.
In addition, there will be some increased risk of mudslides along hilly terrain.
* The higher up a building is, the greater the wind speed. A ten story building can easily experience winds a full category higher than a single story structure.
Unlike many other locations that have been hit by hurricanes in recent years, but which have structures no more than a few stories tall, much of the northeast is built skyward.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 09:14 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Having lived a month without power in '04, I also suggest that you get a camp stove and some propane, if you don't have one already. The camp stove makes cooking or even making a pot of coffee a whole lot easier than grilling. If you plan on running a generator to keep the fridge and/or a few lights going, remember to get some small or medium gas cans so that all members of the family can help refuel and keep the generator running (the bigger cans can be way too heavy for some ppl to handle when refueling).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 09:40 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Recon is finding an eyewall starting to form again, and slightly lower pressure. Some of the models were showing some strengthening before NC landfall, so it's not entirely unexpected, but it will likely landfall about what it is now.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 10:12 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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The good news is the NHC is now showing Irene as between a Cat 1 & Cat 2 at landfall. Discussion indicate that the core is eroding and she is weakened somewhat. I'd be surprised to see hurricane forces sustained winds report onshore, however lots of gusts to hurricane force are very possible. There are several buoys ahead of the storm that should give a good indication of wind speeds. M41013 will be 40 miles east of Irene's core around 2AM. Next up is #41037 which is just 27 miles off the Wrightsville Beach NC.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 10:30 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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The time before landfall is usually pretty quiet (on sites like this) unless there's some sort of news, at landfall there will be mixed reports, mostly good news. It takes a while (Sometimes hours or a day or two) for other news to come out since many areas will be blacked out.
Rumors will start to fly, both of "no problems" and "massive destruction" but will take a while to shake out. If someone has access to call or use the computer, chances are they weren't in the worst areas.
That said, recon found a 949mb pressure and the highest flight level winds its found all day (108kt), so it is going down again slightly.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 10:57 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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I also think due to the fact that it is hardly holding on as a cat 2 cane and really is most likely a 1 since the inner core of the came is gone.There still will be heavy rain and some win but the big destruction that was predicted a few days ago looks like it will not appear.But if you are on the coast i would move inland but this could have ben a lot worse if the cat 4 storm which was predicted a few days happened.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 11:40 PM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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The fact that it is category 2 is actually deceptive.
When a category 4 storm hits land, the eye is ripped apart by the interaction with land. Only the first hour or so after landfall gets the category 4 strength, while most people experience only category 1 or 2 strength, if not tropical storm strength. The winds expand outward as a result of this core dissipation, allowing tropical storm and weaker hurricane force to affect a larger area than at landfall.
This storm has already had its core decay. The wind field has already expanded. And it is 950mb pressure (approx). While the eye is trying to reform, the fact that wind field is already at post-landfall size means that this storm is going to huge. Think of it this way: the tropical storm force winds with Irene cover an area nearly half the size of the Gulf of Mexico and will be hitting 45 million or more people.
Storm surges are estimated to be up to 7 feet in some coastal areas from North Carolina to New England. Graphics I have reviewed show 4 foot storm search surrounding Manhattan Island. Norfolk area may have up to 7 feet.
I've been a little less active today due to stowing deck furniture, boats, hammocks, telescopes, and other things I want to protect from my 40 miles of NE exposure on the Chesapeake Bay.
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 01:30 AM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Well Irene's inner core is collapsing (good news), I would still expect to see this at high end cat 1 at landfall maybe lower end cat 2 but the bigger news will be the possible flooding rains and high winds over large area with many areas up the eastern seaboard seeing tropical storm sustained winds with gusts to hurricane force likely into lower New England. I see maybe some 90-100 mph in gusts possible near landfall but the bigger issue looks to be size and amount of time of damaging winds.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 02:02 AM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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Based on radar she is tracking a bit further east then projected and still might miss a NC landfall if this motion continues. Hard to tell due to the distance/curve of the earth effect, but core (on radar) doesn't appear solid. Outflow to the south is all but gone based on water vapor images. Buoy #41013 is 80 miles NW from the Irene's eye and shows peak winds of 65 mph, pressure is down to 29.1" from a high of 29.9". Stay safe folks!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 02:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks
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Irene has quite a bit more warm ocean to go, particularly if the current trend toward the north-northeast continues. It is conceivable that on its current heading a "direct hit" is avoided, but Irene could end up with more time over water, very warm water, slowing the weakening process, and possibly even helping crack open a window for some renewed strengthening - however, enhancement is not the official forecast, and NHC places the odds of a new round of appreciable intensification at under 20%.
| Edski |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 02:49 AM |
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Re: Irene Storm Preps
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that eastward drift has looked apparent to me in the IR loop since early afternoon. a lot of dry air to the west of this beast sems to be causing it some struggles.
it is a rather impressively large wind field, and it will give a taste of the tropics to a lot of people who never have experienced it. looking at the latest loop, maybe the center misses Cape Hatteras...but with the size of the storm it really matters little. A lot of people are going to see a lot of wind and rain.