MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jun 01 2011 04:03 AM
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Is Underway

5:00 PM EDT 3 June 2011 Update
Invest 94L, with a 20% chance for development within the next 48 hours, is now active as a broad area of low pressure south of Jamaica. At 03/18Z the system coordinates were listed as 16.1N 77.3W with a pressure of 1007MB. The system has shown some attempts at SLOW organization within the past 24 hours and is expected to remain quasi-stationary. The upper air environment should become slightly less hostile over the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and possible over Puerto Rico and the southern Bahamas.

Invest 93L is now in the southwest Gulf of Mexico southeast of Brownsville, Texas with minimal convection. The system is moving to the west northwest and is not expected to develop.
ED

6:00 PM EDT 1 June 2011 Update
The system that crossed central Florida today (93L) has moved on off to the west, and is now entering the Gulf, there remains about a 20% chance for development, it is likely to continue its rapid west southwest movement, possibly all the way into southern Texas.

The area in the west Caribbean is still mostly disorganized, but has a 10% chance for development over the next 48 hours. It is not being tracked as an Invest area currently, and this system is not expected to develop due to shear and dry air in the area..

8:30 AM 1 June 2011 Update
The approach of the system off Florida is moving pretty quickly and parts of Florida should start seeing rain later today, it will likely move through central and north Florida bringing quite a bit of Rain, unfortunately parts south will not see much, if anything from it. It has a little under 10 hours to organize enough to become a tropical depression which there is a 30% chance to do so.

Most of the rain is southwest of the center.

Original Update
Today marks the first day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The United States has not had a hurricane landfall in nearly 1000 days (990 to be exact, and it was Hurricane Ike in 2008 near Galveston).

Other Tropical storms have made landfall, and hurricanes have hit outside the United States, some with great damage, and this year we have another shot to dodge the bullet. Only 4 other times has there been this long of a lull between actual hurricane landfalls in the US:

11/2/1861 - 9/13/1865 = 1,412 days (the record)
9/30/1929 - 8/14/1932 = 1,050 days (4th place)
8/10/1980 - 8/18/1983 = 1,104 days (2nd place)
10/16/1999 - 10/3/2002 = 1,083 days (3rd place)

Beating the old record of no landfalls would require the United States being missed until August 2012. Unfortunately, since this is nearing the longest span of time without a hurricane landfall in the US, therefore the odds are strongly in favor of a hit this year.

This brings a few problems, mainly the inexperience of many new coastal residents, and apathy toward preparations. In slow economic conditions people tend to be less likely to bother with preparations, but this year it is extremely important to be hurricane prepared.

Have a plan, at the very least. Know if you are in an evacuation area, and when to leave (and more importantly when not to).

Have some supplies ready if you are in an area that may see hurricanes, and stay informed. Hype is still a large problem with media and storms, and this site still takes the point of view that hurricanes are rare events and that hype is counterproductive, smart monitoring of the basin is more useful.

With the proliferation of social media sites, it's easier for information (and misinformation) to get out. Hype can exist there too. I dislike hurricanes, but still want to learn as much about them as possible. Here you will find discussion and data geared to what is going on, and not toward sensational reporting of the situation.

Earlier this year, there have been several tornado outbreaks that have been devastating, it's much harder to prepare for that event, but hurricanes you can see coming a few days out and there is no excuse not to be prepared.

The National Hurricane Center has been and still is the best source for accurate information, this site is a supplement to it from another point of view. There are plenty of other resources on the internet and elsewhere that we recommend looking at as well, but smartly.

Confirm anything you read or see in multiple places when trying to decide on a plan of action for any particular storm. When a storm gets very close internet sites like this one become much less important than local sources for information.

Also if something does hit and you are ok, take advantage of social sites to let people know the status of yourself and area so that word can spread since local communications can be strained. (Note if you can't get a call out on strained networks, try to use text or data!)

Statistical odds make 2011 a bit more dangerous than the last few years, so it is important to be vigilant. This site will open up some new features during the season that will be discussed later. The newest is the mobile website. (Just use a phone browser to go to http://flhurricane.com )

For Florida, the last Major landfall was Wilma in 2005, and another interesting note, the last time that South Florida (and the east coast of Central Florida) had such an extremely dry May was in 2004 (and 1992 before that).

The list of names for this year is Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney.



For the first two months of the Hurricane season, it is generally slow. Any development usually happens in the Western Caribbean and even more rarely outside of that. Generally toward the second half of July it starts to heat up and things get really going mid August through mid October.

Right now there is an "Invest" area off the coast of Florida, moving generally southwestward. This area, known as 93L, is very weak, and most of the rain and satellite visible convection is southwest of the center, and shear won't be kind to it. However, it does have a surface low, and the convection will probably make a rainy day for Florida/Georgia Later Today and Tomorrow. The current track takes it right through Central Florida.

Elsewhere, there is a disturbed area in the western Caribbean being highly affected by wind-shear. This system has a small chance to developer later in the week, but odds are not in favor of this. If it did it would stay south of the United States and mostly affect the Western/Central Caribbean with very heavy rainfall.

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{StormLinks|93L|93|1|2011|1|93L}}
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Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack.com is doing a broadcast for the Start of the season, and as in many years prior, Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.




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