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Updated. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 904 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 .DISCUSSION... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE NE FL IS RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TREKS SW DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SARASOTA-POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THERE. FORECAST AND GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE INLAND NORTH/CENTRAL POPS TO 40 AND REARRANGE ZONE GROUPS SOME. That is one of many update that this system will Probably generate.~danielw AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 .DISCUSSION... DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FL COAST HAS EVOLVED INTO A FULL BLOWN MCS THAT WILL IMPACT THE NRN CWA AROUND MIDDAY. CIRCULATION CENTER WAS APPROACHING THE 60NM BY MID MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHRAS DVLPG AHEAD IT. INITIAL SHRAS OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD WILL BE BRIEF AS THEY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A 20-30KT NERLY FLOW...BUT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE STORM PERIPHERY...LIKELY DUE TO PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE. UPDATED ZONES TO PUSH PRECIP BACK A FEW HRS OVER THE INTERIOR AND TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ZONES. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD) VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 02/1700Z D. 28.0N 87.0W E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. . FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 03/1200Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE Emphasis added~danielw C. 03/1000Z D. 28.0N 94.0W E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. |