Right now the system is moving in a Southerly direction and that throws almost all of the models out. At least the 00Z models from last night.
The following comment is Forecast Lounge material. I place it here to tie into Edski's post. Mike and Ed feel free to move it.

The current models seem to have split. Motions are west, north and east.
BAMD is probably picking up on the upper ridge currently over the Midwest moving into the SE US in a few days. Deflecting 98L to the west. GFDL wants to skirt the ridge, against the flow, and head for the NC Coast. LBAR is off to the NW, toward Jacksonville, and HWRF is a fish spinner.

If the system were to move west it's chances of intensifying in the short term, would/ should be less than in the other directions.
Based on an overland track! A few systems in the past have intensified over Southern Florida