cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 19 2011 02:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US

As of 2AM EDT, Bret has been having the wind knocked right out of him by his ongoing battle with dry air in the region. This steady and rather rapid erosion has been the trend ever since the cyclone started developing a ragged eyewall. Rather than enjoying a burst of renewed convection overnight, yet more dry air has continued taking a toll on what remains.

There is now a substantially increasing chance that Bret will merely degenerate into just a shallow, low-level swirl relatively soon- northerly shear is already now affecting the cyclone, is set to steadily increase over the next 48 hours, and at this rate, degeneration into a remnant low could happen as early as later today. Nonetheless, this is not yet the official forecast from the NHC, and even should the cyclone degenerate, often blustery winds and intermittent heavy showers can continue for some time until a system has either completely wound down, and/or become absorbed by something else.



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