MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO S CENTRAL GULF WITH
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFF NE TIP OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. SEVERAL SHIP OBS THIS
MORNING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND CANCUN RADAR NOW SHOWING IMPROVED
BANDING AND THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOON.
HURRICANE RECON CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL MOVES THIS LOW OFF TO THE NW AND INLAND ACROSS
TEXAS OR NEAR TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER BY 72 HRS. WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT AND WARM SST'S THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
INTO A STRONG T.S. BUT CURRENTLY SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS
SYSTEM TO 66 KT AT 72 HRS AS IT MOVES INLAND.

HOWEVER...THAT
BEING SAID...WE ALL KNOW HOW QUICKLY GULF SYSTEMS CAN BLOW UP SO
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH THIS FORECAST.

REFER TO LATEST
STATEMENTS FROM NHC WEB SITE.

THUS FAR THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A
SMALL INNER CORE WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO INITIALLY REMAIN
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. CURRENT OFFSHORE AND HighSeasForecast DO NOT ADDRESS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
USED
ECMWF WINDS AND WAVES TO NUDGE FORECAST AS THIS TRAJECTORY WAS
MORE IN LINE WITH INITIAL TC FORECASTS.