This is my first post on the website this season so let me first say hello to everybody. I've looked at the new 12Z package and read everybody's post as of noon ET.

The shear over the storm is currently between 10 & 15 knots from the north and northeast with less than 5 knots in a generally north to south axis just ahead of its track. The amount of shear is not enough to impose any strengthening issues at this time.

Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air along the track and I did look at the most current dry air imagery from CIMMS and there is dry air indicated to the west and less so to the NW of the storm and particularly over land where almost the entire state of TX is experiencing an "Exceptional" drought.

As per NHC, the models are split; half along a NW track, the other half more west.

The vortex structure; it is in fact not aligned and as satellite imagery indicates...it's not too well put together and what appears as the center on satellite is the mid-level center displaced from the surface which is to the northeast under convection.

Not to stray too much from what I posted over on the Flhurricane FaceBook page...Don may become a minimum hurricane but it's greatest benefit is for it to be a strong Tropical Storm and it's bands to gradually open outward as it spirals downward following landfall and provide the beneficial rainfall TX needs.