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28/2329Z - I looked at the latest CIMMS Wind Shear Analysis and Don is now between an area of winds from the north between 5 and 10 knots, not 10 and 15 knots. Movement of Don over the past several hours is just north of due west and I don't see anything in the model data to suggest otherwise. Don is situated under a 200mb upper ridge axis with an inverted trough to it's NE-E-SE and a closed upper low to its west near the tip of Baja California and a mid to upper level upper ridge over the SE USA. Strength of the SE USA upper ridge supports a continued west to west-northwest movement. The more southerly track is not good news for areas in an exceptional drought but those north and east of the track will see beneficial rainfall. |