AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN JUL 31 2011

edited~danielw

...AS FAR AS THE TROPICS GO...A WIND SURGE HAS DETACHED A PORTION OF
WHAT ONCE THOUGHT TO BE PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. NOW THE
TROPICAL WAVE BEING OBSERVED FOR DEVELOPMENT IS BEHIND THIS SURGE.
HOWEVER...THIS SURGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE DEEPER
CONVECTION THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.

BUOY 41040 HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 MPH ...GUSTS
AROUND 34 MPH AND SEAS CLOSE TO 12 FT. THIS DATA WAS RECORDED AS
THE DETACHED PORTION OF THE WAVE WENT THROUGH THE BUOY.
ALSO...BUOY 41101 EAST OF MARTINIQUE HAS REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES
WITH A MAX SUSTAINED WIND OF 26 MPH AND GUST OF 30 MPH WITH SEAS
OF AROUND 10 FT.

THE ACTUAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BE CATEGORIZED AS A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH ITS ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...IT WILL BE OVER MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER STATED THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANY TIME
NOW. WE WILL KNOW MORE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA...MAYBE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THE 12Z RUN THAN
THE 06Z RUN. THE 12Z RUN HOWEVER HAS SEVERAL MODELS TRACKING THE
CYCLONE JUST OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND PONCE AND EXITING THROUGH AGUADILLA...WITH
AN INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A WEAKER HURRICANE.