typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Aug 02 2011 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean

Fascinating meteorology apparent with 91L's naming. Late this afternoon, a small plume of colder cloud tops erupted around the NE quadrant of the low level swirl that had been ejected out of the overnight general region of ill-looking convection. This then wrapped around the N side continuing to develop, and has apparently recently subsumed the vortex altogether.

I believe that prior to this recovery in development 91L was both too large, and too close in proximity to SAL. The former retarded development because it had more than one vortex vying for development and these interfered with one another; the latter is a dust/dry air concern. During the day, numerous arcus clouds could be seen emanating from the occasional convective elements, and this is consistent with dry air entrainment.

With the low level circulation accelerating away from these two mitigating factors, it is interesting to see this rapid response. We'll see if it persists, but with ample oceanic heat content and sufficient anticyclonic motion noted in the u/a analysis, there doesn't appear to be any hugely mitigating circumstance for the time being. That may be why a lot of the intensity guidance still insists on Cat 1 or 2 status conflicting with the land masses along and west of the Puerto Rico archipelago.



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