The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.

My initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z GFS, with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.

As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.

We'll update in the morning.