danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 02 2011 03:08 PM
Emily

I'm seeing fairly rapid pressure falls at the buoys over the last 3 hours. I almost looks like someone threw a switch and turned on a vacuum.

I'm still not sure the storm will pass over Hispaniola. Possibly the western tip of Haiti and Eastern Cuba. Winds, based on the latest SHIPS model. Should be in the 55 mph range. But homes in Haiti aren't necessarily built for those winds. And quite a large number of people are still without decent shelter since the Earthquake.

Latest SHIPS model indicates the shear and most of the other inhibiting factors should decrease or drop in 6 hours. I believe this will coincide with Dmin, or the diurnal minimum in a storm cycle. Weaker or fewer thunderstorms.
We will have to wait and see what happens then.

See Clark's answer to the definaition of D max and D min.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=25541&an=0&page=1#25541

If you live on the Florida Peninsula you may want to go over your Hurricane Plan. And check the fuel, water and grocery supplies. Just in case.



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