I noted yesterday that historical data favors a more westerly track, in addition a weaker storm would head that way. Yesterday the official cone kept shifting east, despite the center being south and sometimes ever so slightly west of predicted, but as mentioned the system is not stacked very well, thus the center position doesn't give you the full story. Today Emily looks really ragged and appears to be running into more shear, the outflow has clearly been disrupted. The trough coming off the east coast of the US looks pretty strong and after hitting the mountains Emily will be firmly up against it. Environmental conditions are stacking up against her, the next 24 hours will be interesting. I had her survival at 50/50 yesterday and would bring that number down today. If she survives we'll be looking at very weak storm off the coast of Cuba, that when the real assessment of the situation will begin.