weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola

No doubt, Emily's LLC would appear to be entirely decoupled from any remaining mid level center ( or al least whatever extent of primary convection farther east ). Shear at the moment is having a real impact and inflow is likely restricted due to HIspanola as well. Will assume that NHC might keep Emily as a weakened and minimal T.S. for the next advisory, given the substantial LLC and the typical time it takes to "wind down"; that and the fact that there remains the possibility of refiring of convection close to the westward tracking center.

Beyond continuity and perhaps only a slight chance of short term recovery, I would imagine that Emily will be downgraded to a depression later in the day/evening. In fact, it may well be downgraded to an open wave by this evening, however that should not mean that this remnant vigerous wave is done. Some models still want to either regenerate the mid level remant of Emily and continue to track it across Hispanola, or that the remnant vorticity would still reform either south or north of Cuba in the next couple days. Even if the later were to occur and Florida and/or the Bahamas were to come back into play, the significance of this happening would now appear as more of a rain impact than from wind.

It would seem that barring some pretty unusual set of circumstances though, there should not be a major risk to the U.S. from Emily unless reorganization were to occur AND a stalled reorganizing system were to intensify from little in a hurry.



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