danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 03 2011 12:14 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola

Either way I think we will see an even bigger split in the models, later.
It may be the 00Z run before we see significant changes.

Currently All of the BAM suite is on the SW side of the Florida Peninsula.
The right turn is reflected in nearly all of the other models.

Except the BAMD and CMC they want to go toward the Eastern GOM.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 edited~danielw

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD... AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS



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