JMII
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 03 2011 03:14 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola

The LLC is well west now (and SW of forecast), but some convection is firing up to the NE, while the rest is left behind (SE). Given its current position the models have shifted back west as Emily's decoupling is really screwing with possible plots. Half of them are now putting the storm over Cuba then into the GOM while the other half favor the original route between FL and the Bahamas. With all the land interaction in the way I can't see this thing staying together, but temporarily this latest burst of convection could wrap up and give the illusion of a healthy system. The outflow to the south and west have all but stopped. Emily seems to be running into more shear as the upper and mid levels winds in her (projected) path are all over the place.

"interesting" & "complex" for sure... clearly not an easy system to predict.



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