(danielw) You're absolutely right...and discussions about Emily verify this. If Emily remains shallow...not organized expect a more westward track. If Emily gains vertical depth she will feel the much larger hemispheric effects of the east coast longwave trough and be pulled between the two subtropical upper highs. Last season the ECMWF performed extremely well...and is handling Emily quite well with zero north bias. My concern this evening is Emily simply isn't very deep and I see a 270 to 280 direction. I expect a continued shift to the left. Recent satellite imagery has convection over the surface center; however Shear analysis shows 20 knots from the west with the 200 mb upper high to the south of the system.