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Based on the long Water Vapor loop it appears Emily is moving generally westward along south of Hispaniola as if to avoid it, with the north side a bit affected by the island, the rest, like you said is looking a lot better. It's still fighting the twin nature from days back, and until that influence is completely purged it will likely struggle. The dry air and shear near Cuba aren't having too much of an affect. The water vapor hints at a weakness in the ridge to the north (East of the northern Bahamas), but it's not clear if Emily will go for it yet or not. Still no obvious move northward since it's been south of Hispaniola.since when it was near 70W. Water vapor remains probably my favorite satellite view to see whats going on around the system. Emily is expanding, though, which has made tracking movement difficult ever since the llc went back under convection. |