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I agree the WV is the tool of choice to see the synoptic pattern immediately surrounding the system. Right now that picture tells a story of the weakness in the Atlantic ridge north and east of the islands and the cyclonic flow covering the Carribean to the west. There seems to be two choices: the system begins to move toward the weakness in the Atlantic, or is pulled wnw toward the weakness between the Carribean ULL and the ridge over the SE US which lies in the Florida straits. There is little in the way of cloud movement north and west of the system to see how those flows are working but a few images did pop up NW of the system and they seem to be moving NW toward the Florida straits. ( Drop sonds will answer these questions later today probably). I am not saying that is predictive, but it is the type of immedite visual evidence to watch for that can signal a future track. |