scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 04 2011 04:17 PM
Re: Emily Moving West Northwest

TBH I don't see any circulation with this system anymore.. its more in the 850mb and above and not all the way to the surface. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1010mb low pressure but NO LLC in the next recon and 5pm update.

I say there is a 60% chance this will be a trough over the next 12hrs 40% stay a weak Storm... near 0% of this getting stronger than what it is for the next 24hrs.

Main factor this had was the mid level circulation was behind the LLC... at times they got close but then the LLC weakend. There were a lot of lower pressure points in this system.. Although 1 had a LLC... others 150 miles away would have a pressure drop matching the LLC and disrupting the LLC causing it to weaken.. just too many LLV causing pressure drops around the Main LLC



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