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Just as the upper levels started to look favorable the lower level inflow has been cut off by the island. Emily looks to be running out of steam... the IR loop shows a much weaker storm, almost back to depression status. Wondering if we'll have a "jumper" where their entire circulation falls apart only to reform in completely separate location further down the road. Back on advisory #5A the NHC had her as a depression at this point (2PM Thurs) but that assumed she was off the island and trying to regroup. Right now her survival depends on getting further north (to warm water quickly) as any more west (even NW) motion puts her on top of Cuba tomorrow and she is clearly not strong enough for that path. |