weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 05 2011 01:57 PM
Re: Emily Moving West Northwest

Well, the "entertainer fromerly known as Prince.....ummm I mean EMILY" has left the building..... or has she?
Looking at morning vis. satellite, there appears to me a large very weak center of low level vorticity centered at about 22N and 78W. Hard to tell, but would appear to be moving at around 290. There is some convection firing up over Cuba and seemingly associated with this overall area, and it would appear to me to likely be the remnant LLC of Emily. Looking at Water Vapor, most of the dry air is gone and the atmosphere looks to have moistened up. Upper air models from 6Z would seem to indicate that the area would be conducive for development ( for a developed system ). Just not sure if there remains enough of a structure ( say perhaps from 850mb down to the surface ) to allow for development to occur. If the surface reflection were to continue to move WNW into the SE Gulf, upper air would appear to be less conducive. I would put a low ( but possible ) "questionmark" on any real development here, other than some slight re-organization of a weak low that may be enough to throw some good precipitation over parts of S. Florida, the Keys, and Central Cuba.

I am less confident that the remnant mid level feature of Emily ( over the Bahamas ) will develop due to lacking the low level inflow. This feature might simply just get pulled "up and out" to the NE.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center