Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Aug 05 2011 10:22 PM
Re: Emily Moving West Northwest

I don't want to dive into too much speculation on what a system might do when it has yet to reform - especially on the Main Page. Its somewhat like putting the cart before the horse since Emily's remnants still will require much more organization before it could be classified as a TD. At 05/18Z, NHC ran the BAM suite of models using 23N 78W, but they nudged the position northwest a bit too much when assigning the model input coordinates. At 12Z the center point was at about 22.4N 75.5W and at 19Z the approximate position was 22.6N 77.3 - so a WNW movement at 15 knots. Since then, more convection has developed near/at the center and perhaps more of a northwestward motion as a result. I did notice a spin further west, but convection never did catch on in that area. The entire wave still has at least three separate swirls, so Emily remains true to form (or better stated as 'lack of form') but reformation chances are still on the high side.
ED



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