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There still seems to be a lot of shear (or, the shear is back), so you're probably right. Every time convection tries to fire up on the other side (north) of the apparent LLC it dies off quickly. Edit: Up to 80% on the 2pm TWO (which is not very meaningful given that recon in literally enroute). The NHC is sticking by the "out to sea" forecast, even though the system itself is moving due west toward Miami from all indications |