The official forecast is right along the model consensus (Well just slightly west of it), there is enough of a question factor toward the end to keep the entire cone (both west and east) into play, so it could shift into the Gulf.

The tricky thing is that intensity forecast, man, even 50 miles difference between Haiti or not would likely make a huge difference. The Hurricane Center is going conservative on the forecast, which is based on their own track and odds, so it's not too bad, but even they state in the discussion that it is highly uncertain. I'd keep watch of the trends over the week, if it were to affect South Florida it would likely be Friday.

For a graphic of actual probabilities, this is the best one: