CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 20 2011 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands

The current run of the GFS shear map indicates upper level winds will remain very conducive for further development during the next 4-5 days.

There may have been a center reformation from the initial advisory, to the NW and just east of the convection, as she is now north of the forecast points.  Imagery also indicates more of a WNW motion at the moment, which may become more westerly (275-280)  briefly, based on current steering flow. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.GIF

If this is a true deviation from course, then she could spend more time over water, which could be the worse case scenario, as a shift either way in track too much will allow more strengthening.


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