| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 22 2011 12:20 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea
|
Quote:
Definately an average westerly movement for the past few hours - which will probably keep the storm south of Puerto Rico. The airport at St. Croix reported a pressure of 998MB and a peak wind gust of 40mph. The airport was on the south side of the center which helps to explain the weaker wind speeds. Land interaction with Hispaniola is now pretty much a guarantee and reduces the risk of a major storm later on (for the lawyers I said 'reduce', not 'eliminate').
ED
Based upon the San Juan radar.... if Irene were moving due west (which, according to the NHC, it's not doing, since they say it's moving WNW)... at least part of the eyewall would move right over Puerto Rico. Granted, a radar isn't perfectly aligned, but I think it's a fair bet that Irene will cross right over Puerto Rico.
Edit: Recon vortex shows pressure down to 994 and winds inching up to near 65mph. Fix is almost due east of Caja de Muerto (a tiny island south of the main island of Puerto Rico).