I agree i think even with Tampa in the cone and even if the track was exact (which it won't) tampa would not get anything.Always remember the left side is the weaker side.

Also the NHC forcast is on the western side of the models so i would think come 5pm it will be even more east and maybe even the west coast of Florida out of the cone.

ALSO as the storm gets closer and a track gets more apparent the cone will shrink.I in noway am saying Florida is out of the woods but if the models do not change or the storm start going due west real fast the most Florida will see is squalls and some rain and this is South Florida east coast.

In fact Tampa would see less rain the normal no afternoon rain as all the rain would be pulled away and Tampa would be hit and dry more then normal