I have a concern that given the relative weak trough and fairly stout ridges ( Western Atlantic and "Texas Ridge" ), that significant deepening of Irene itself, might be adequite to potentially bridge the two ridges, thus continuing to drive her WNW into the Florida Straights or points northward to about Vero Beach.

Latest GFS certainly would seem to confirm NHC's thinking to nudge the cone farther to the east. The G-IV flight later today should confirm or perhaps "shake out" incorrect / missing synoptics that impacts the GFS runs. Tonights 0Z run might bear this out either way. I've always enjoyed a good laugh with past NHC personnel regarding the NAM ( and NGM ) being directly looked at for specific TC forecasting applications. However, as an asset to measure/forecast CONUS synoptic features ( for novice readers -Synoptic: macro-scale atmospheric processes

), it remains one of several core tools in forecasting.